Rating players in test match cricket

In general, the evaluation of player performance in test cricket is based on measures such as batting and bowling averages. These measures have a number of limitations, among which is that they fail to take into account the context in which runs are made or conceded and wickets are taken or given away. Furthermore, batting and bowling averages do not allow the comparison of performances in these two disciplines; this is because batting and bowling performances are measured using different metrics. With these issues in mind, we develop a new player rating system for test cricket. We use multinomial logistic regression to model match outcome probabilities session by session. We then use these probabilities to measure the overall contribution of players to the match outcome based on their individual batting, bowling and fielding contributions during each session. Our measure of contribution has the potential for rating players over time and for determining the ‘best’ player in a match, a series or a calendar year. We use results from 104 matches (2010–2012) to illustrate the method. Journal of the Operational Research Society advance online publication, 30 April 2014; doi:10.1057/jors.2014.30